Reed Elsevier: Goodbye to Berlin – The Fading Threat of Open Access (Upgrade to Market-Perform) – Claudio Aspesi, Helen Luong (.pdf)

« … 11 years after the Berlin Declaration on Open Access, however, the rise of Open Access appears to inflict little or no damage on the leading subscription publishers

Subscription publishing appears in good health

With such dire predictions in mind, we expected Reed Elsevier to perform badly. Instead, the stock had a very good run since 2011, and the performance of Wiley (not covered) – particularly in the past 12 months – mirrors that of Reed Elsevier (Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10). The most recent earnings announcements suggested that growth is accelerating at Elsevier and that at Wiley renewal rates are very strong (Exhibit 11 and Exhibit 12). Journal revenues at Reed Elsevier are probably growing organically somewhere between 3 and 4% a year, and at around 2% at Wiley. In other words, none of the concerns we formulated in 2011 and 2012 came to pass (…) »